Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that split the nation and caused disorder, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly split population where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the lack of serious debate, said McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or advocates want to engage even with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer advocates unity or the status quo. They writes two essays that aim for neutrality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and social data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they favour unity but refuse increased taxation or implementing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified arguments, he commented. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will ultimately lose but each side has got valuable insights to acquire from the other's positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
