Starmer's Supporters Initiate 'Block Andy Burnham' Campaign to Block Mayor's Commons Re-entry
Key supporters of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have reportedly set in motion a coordinated initiative to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Greater Manchester Mayor, from securing a comeback to parliament. This action comes after the stepping down of a Manchester-area MP, which has prompted an upcoming byelection.
Major Obstacles in the Candidate Selection Procedure
Multiple figures on the Labour Party's ruling NEC have reportedly suggested it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to navigate the candidate selection procedure. This is largely due to the sizable presence of Starmer loyalists on the body who are keen to avoid any potential leadership challenge.
The Labour hierarchy reportedly sprung into action following the announcement of the MP's planned resignation, with party figures and MPs raising concerns about the substantial financial cost and political risk of a resulting election for mayor in Greater Manchester.
Burnham's Ambitions and Party Concerns
Andy Burnham has been open about his political ambitions. Last year, he caused anger in Downing Street and among senior ministers when he remarked that numerous MPs had encouraged him to run for the Labour leadership.
There has long been speculation that he is seeking a return to parliament to potentially stand for the Labour leadership should a contest to Sir Keir emerge. However, supporters of the Greater Manchester Mayor have cautioned against exaggerating the level of any planning, stating he is passionate about his job as mayor and would solely return national politics if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.
Political Landscape and Poll Ratings
Against a backdrop of polls suggesting Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's prospects at the next election, Andy Burnham is seen as the only prominent Labour figure with consistently positive ratings with the public.
Should Mr. Burnham decide to run, multiple hurdles stand in his way. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the odds are not in his favour—and then win the by-election against challenges from Reform UK and pro-Gaza independents, all prior to any potential bid for the leadership.
Efforts to Block Burnham
Senior Labour figures have said that a "Stop Andy" campaign is already under way, with the party machinery being tightly controlled by senior aides of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister himself commented that the by-election procedure was in its "early stages" and told his MPs to cease discussion of potential leadership challenges.
Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's resignation was confirmed, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Costs and Risks
NEC members have allegedly pointed to not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could redirect an estimated ÂŁ500,000 in party funding from other crucial elections across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.
Several insiders also expressed fears about Reform UK potentially fill any vacancy created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant political win for them.
Union Influence and Democratic Concerns
Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to stand. It is also possible the committee could enforce an all-female shortlist to block his nomination.
However, one Burnham ally warned against assuming the NEC would simply block his candidacy, even though Sir Keir's team is widely thought to control it.
The trade unions hold a sizable proportion of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are for now keeping their counsel, insiders indicated they would be uncomfortable with anything seen as interference from Downing Street.
The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
Electoral Challenges
The constituency in question has a considerable Labour majority. However, Reform UK is likely to mount a significant challenge, building on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on firmer ground in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could face a challenge from independent candidates.
Should Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to mount a bid for the leadership, a hurdle that is far from certain given he is viewed with scepticism by a number of on the backbenches.
The resigning MP stated he was stepping down due to deteriorating mental health, which had made it untenable for him to carry on in his role. He is also subject to a parliamentary standards investigation concerning his involvement in an offensive online group.
