Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: optimistic declarations are issued from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is expended on restraining specific proposals. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "settlement".
After-Dark Attacks
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from enemy soil, a capacity provided through current data. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to engage hostile cruise missiles streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: several firings deployed against a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely provided by allied countries. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly transforms into sober acceptance: possibly the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and further power outages.
Persistent Threats
Not long after, a heavy machine gun opened up on a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – almost certainly imported technology. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its target.
With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: several casualties, devastation and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a dependence that regional partners are demonstrably unable to fill in the immediate future.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The comprehensive proposal from Washington sparked intense emotion, debate and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from US leadership adheres to the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This trend will, undoubtedly, endure.
Tactical Assessments
It is easy to blame certain parties of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration operates on a assumption familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government presumes that it is impossible to force Russia to abandon the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does minimal to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the near future.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Moscow is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding civilians and areas but averting a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its benefit.
Current Realities
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.
These opposing factors are influencing discussions.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a mere seven days to kill the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.
While new plans based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on continued Western support.
